Shortly after the previous presidential election, I became increasingly disillusioned about politics in general and President Benigno Aquino III, in particular. I became so disillusioned that I eventually decided to refrain from writing about public affairs. Lately, I have come to see politics in a fresh new light. Perhaps a fermenting of my pessimism into political maturity --- or just a natural sign of ageing. Whichever it may be, I believe it's high time to weigh in on the game again.
GAME OF THRONES 2016The mudslinging has been on for some time now but it's only today that it is officially in full swing.
And here are the official presidential contestants (in no particular order):
- Vice President Jejomar Binay
- Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago
- Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte
- Senator Grace Poe
- Administration bet Mar Roxas
The latest Pulse Asia Survey generally reflects this scenario:
- Poe regains the top rank at the survey with 30 percent
- Jejomar Binay ranked second with 23 percent
- Roxas and Duterte each scored 20 percent
- Defensor-Santiago has 4 percent voter preference
Any which way you look at it, these numbers are weak, if not pathetic. These numbers imply that any candidate who can muster the genius or the luck to capture the popular imagination even late in the game can play wild card and dominate the polls.
Here are a few random thoughts thin slicing inside my head:
Binay has been known to pull out last minute, under the rug surprises (remember the Noy-Bi phenomenon?)
Duterte may be tied with Roxas now, but his unique brand and strong unapologetic message could prove deadly for his opponents. He also happens to enjoy the "new kid in town" advantage.
Roxas has been a bottom dweller, consistently shooting himself in the foot. It would take, I dunno, no less than a catastrophic miracle for him to land a victory. He has a huge image problem that I would love to see him fix whether or not he wins.
Defensor-Santiago is, as far as numbers go, a non-player. For sure, she should have won a long time ago. But now she's but a faint echo of a thunder long gone.
MY TWO CENTS FEARLESS FORECAST
I believe the underwhelmed majority will eventually warm up to the rivalry of the two.
Poe will be a strong third player, until her natural momentum get sucked by Binay vs Duterte narrative. Naturally, if Poe can win her citizenship case with finality much sooner than later, that would offset the general landscape.